Of days we remember

A group of my friends meets to discuss soul searching questions like how does one live a purposeful happy life. Recently we talked about the purpose of commemorating dates - birth(day)s, anniversaries (of events and people), graduations and so on - in our lives. Dates are an opportunity to reflect on the paths taken, the successes achieved and the lessons learnt. They are also a way to remember the people who came into and those who left our lives, and to renew our old resolutions and make new ones.

With this thought, here is this post, to commemorate a day in mine!

Life Changers - Finding meaning through Amy

As I look back, whenever I thought I was struggling (professionally or personally) in life is when I have done the most meaningful work. This post is meant to be a part of the series of reminisces of those time periods.

A few years ago, I was involved with an organization dedicated to the cause of the domestic violence victims in the tri-state (New York - New Jersey - Connecticut) area.  Let’s call it – ‘Life-Changer’. Life-Changer is very particular about confidentiality to ensure the safety of their clients and people who work with them, their staff and especially volunteers.  It office location and shelter addresses are secret. It doesn’t give references to its volunteers. It also avoided social media presence and web activism till recently.

Apart from the fact that women’s causes naturally resonate, a big reason I joined Life-Changer was guilt. I regret not doing enough for someone very close who went through a tough situation in her life. But as I look back I realize that the work I did gave me a sense of purpose to anchor my own life. Apart from helping with their outreach, marketing and activism, I worked closely with few of Life-Changer’s clients. This portion of my work was the most rewarding.

On my first such case I advocated for Amy (by now you know that’s not her name). Amy married someone from her own country and moved to the United States with him.  She needed to get a US passport for her recently born baby. The Life-Changer staff member who was working with me had told me the details of the case. Amy had been here for less than a year. Like many women who move with their husbands, Amy wasn’t eligible to work, and had no source of income.

I met Amy at the steps of the court-house. This was her third visit. Passport application for a child needs to be signed by both parents. Only problem was that Amy’s husband deserted her before the child was born and Amy had no idea where he was.  We said hello and talked a bit using signs. Amy spoke little English. This was a woman living alone with a newborn baby in a shelter. Amy was in a country different from her own; she was not very fluent with the language and had almost no support structure. For someone going through all this Amy was really strong. I was worried earlier, but I realized apart from the language, Amy didn’t need me much.

We went in the court. I did my part – filled up the baby’s papers, presented them to the officer and just before she was about to put the rejected stamp on our application - told her Amy’s story, mentioned the relevant exception to the law and presented the documentary evidence. She was sympathetic and filled an additional document to expedite the case while we were standing at the window and the others were waiting. I thought she must have seen many such cases before.

Amy was happy when we came out of the court.  She understood that her application was accepted because the officer hadn’t given it back to her. I tried to tell her that she should get her son’s passport in week to ten days.  I wanted to walk with to her public transport location and make sure she could take the right route to the shelter. She politely refused. As we said good-bye she hugged me. I watched her go. Amy was ready, to take the world on her own. She would be first of the many women who I will learn from.

Now that I am in a different geography, not actively involved I think I can actually use the real name instead of Life-Changer. I should think about that.

Book Update :  After my recent tryst with psychology and history am back to fiction. Read, 'A Walk Across the Sun' and 'The Girl Who Played with Fire'.  

The Anatomy of Loneliness

I often try to analyze human behavior and its underlying causes. Had things turned out differently I would have been a psychology professional. Since I am not, I try to train my amateur psychologist brain in other ways. My recent readings include studies on Loneliness. Research from University of Cornell (on a side note if you see their way of putting it, you would be mistaken for assuming psychology is all math) and Chicago finds that homo sapiens, in spite of our claims to be rugged individualists, have evolved so as to be successful in social setups. Our brains have developed to meet the demands of social living – language, relationships, coordination, and social hierarchies. Our defenses – teeth, claws (or lack of them) are insufficient against most predators. 

In this context loneliness – previously described using terms such as depression, shyness or low social skills - is concluded to be ‘perceived’ or subjective (versus objective) social isolation. For example, one possible reason can be when an early childhood attachment disappears. Even though you may still have other friends, the perceived loss is hard to fill. Another possible scenario could be the feeling that you won’t fit in a group of people at a party or social event. Even worse is threat that you won’t fit in your community or family because you don’t abide by the norm. Human brain is wired to integrate with society and actual or perceived threats to that integration cause it to be stressed.

In fact the study claims that loneliness (or perceived social isolation) drives behaviors and feelings such as low social support, shyness, poor social skills, anger, anxiety, lower self esteem and bad mood.

What I like about psychology (and research such as this) is that it helps us understand our feelings and behaviors. Knowing this if you (or I) are feeling ‘subjective social isolation’ – I mean feeling lonely or a misfit – the solution is not to press the panic button or shut out the world, but to seek social support. After all, only fifty percent of loneliness is hereditary in nature, so the other fifty percent (which I count as significant) is in your control. You might also want to reconsider how important it is for you to fit in.

Warren Buffett's philanthropic pledge

Was reading Warren Buffett's philanthropic pledge in the latest Fortune and the following passage stood out.

My luck was accentuated by my living in a market system that sometimes produces distorted results, though overall it serves our country well. I've worked in an economy that rewards someone who saves the life of others on the battlefield with a medal, rewards a great teacher with thank-you notes from parents, but rewards those who can detect the mispricing of securities with sums reaching into billions. In short, fate's distribution of long straws is wildly capricious.

Yes, I know it is great that Buffett and The Gates (Bill and Miranda) are asking wealthy Americans to pledge 50% of their wealth to charity. But for me, it is grave unfairness of the haunting truth of the above statement that needs attention. This, if anything, is what I hope to leave with you today.

Dealing with failures

Disappointments and failures – both professional and personal – are a part of anyone's life. How you deal with them shapes your life and that of others around you. People handle disappointments in a many ways ranging from inability to control their emotions with behavior such as stomping feet, shouting and throwing tantrums, to complete denial and building a shell around them so that failures can't be discussed. Both these extremes make life difficult – at work and home. This post analyses the consequences of your response to failures on your career. Response to failures can basically be of four kind

1. Aggressive - Lack of Self-Control, Shouting, Threats.
   
2. Sophisticated and shrewd blame game, Successfully putting the responsibility on co-workers, procedures etc
   
3. Remedial/Corrective – Finding where mistakes occurred and redoing things, correctly
   
4. Innovation & Abandon – Trying a completely new approach
   

I don't consider the silly blame game as a response. You come out looking even more idiotic and unconvincing. A particular response may have a very different consequence for you depending on your career level. For example, you can get away with option a if you are senior enough though it is highly likely that you have destroyed your team's morale. The table below captures the impact of these behaviors on your careers. I think most of behave in a certain way in a crisis because it has got to do with we are than what the issue is. Cognizance of our own behavior pattern is the first step in modifying it to something more appropriate.

Behavior/ Career Level		Aggressive			Blame-game	Remedial/Corrective	Innovative
Junior		Highly detrimental. Can even have immediate negative consequences.			Can be successful if well used. The key word here is sparingly, only when desperately needed. You can't afford to have a reputation for blaming.	Highly suited for repetitive jobs such as achieving the monthly sales targets	Mostly not welcome except for creative / non-repetitive jobs. Example – finding a new target segment. People want to know you can effectively follow directions and established norms.
Mid-Senior		Easier to get by than at junior level.			Not recommended. At this level people are looking at you to take responsibility.	Required as a part of managing others doing repetitive jobs	Needed. Welcomed more than at junior level. Be careful that innovation is not turning into escapism.
Executive		Though it appears that you can get by, there are huge disadvantages to behaving like this. It shows you not in control of a situation & can cause people to lose faith in your leadership			Since you have authority over & are responsible for everything, highly undesirable and ineffective	Needed. Shows that you are in control, and you can lead and teach	Required. Unless you have a different innovative idea for executing the company's vision, your subordinates won't have faith in your leadership.

 

We don't become different people in office. Most of us behave similarly in our personal life too, leading to same consequences. This understanding can help you & I become a better person.

Book Review : The Trillion Dollar Meltdown

I just finished Charles Morris's The Trillion Dollar Meltdown which was published in January 2008. Since the book is based on an area of professional interest, I think it deserves a detailed review and not just an update.

Morris' book was one of the first texts on financial crisis to come to the market. In less than 200 pages the book covers a huge breadth of topics. Starting from the precedents and history of the recessions during the Lyndon & Reagan presidencies, it goes on to talk about the previous market crashes caused by portfolio insurance & the failure of Long Term Capital Management. He describes the current crisis starting of course from the usual CDO's and derivatives, predatory lending practices including the NINJNA (No Income, No Job, No Asset) loans, the cascading effects of high leverage at hedge funds and other financial institutions and the roles of  the raters, insurers and government bond market. He reconfirms my view that loose monetary policy at the time of Alan Greenspan was one of the leading causes of the crises. (Read my previous post here). Morris strongly approves Paul Volker's handling of the problem in 80's. But what really impressed me about the book is that it covers to the global distribution of money, trade deficits &surpluses and also reserves in countries like China, Russia & in the middle-east. By including the power of sovereign wealth fund of these countries and the recent academic debate about China's savings rate & currency valuations, the authors covers the issue from both domestic & international angles. Any review of the book must take into account that Morris was forecasting the future & not analyzing events.

But there are some drawbacks of packing too much into so few pages and shipping the first book and at some places it misses depth. But for a bird's eye of how thing went wrong and where, The Trillion Dollar Meltdown is great book. In fact I definitely recommend it for any bookshelf. Coming from the other side of the table, Morris sees huge limitations of free markets in cleaning up the current mess. According to him the only immediate option America had was to deleverage (and hopefully in an orderly fashion or things would turn really bad). With the benefit of hindsight, here is a passage from the book

The recent woes of the dollar are important for our story because they effectively take the Fed off the board. As credit crunch works its way through banks and investment funds over the next year or so, there will be no soothing fountains of new dollars coming out of Washington. The days of a universal put to the Federal Reserve are finally over.

Clearly even the best of people did not anticipate how many dollars the Federal Reserve and the government would be willing to print. Here are author's views about the $800 TARP in an interview in October 2008.

Book Update: Right now am reading 'The World is Flat' and 'Eat, Love Pray'.

Why Do I Volunteer?

The most important of life's lessons do not come to you while you are managing P&L's and fretting over project schedules. They often land in your lap when you take the time (or are forced to) to sit back and reflect.

Nice Guy is this American teenager I met during one of our outreach sessions. The weather was biting cold and we were distributing hats, gloves and sweaters. He told me he didn't need any. We started talking to the other kids. He stood in a corner and then came around to ask me if he could take a cap and a pair of gloves for a homeless friend who wasn't around. I have often met kids/ young adults do not trust adults immediately. One of the first lessons homeless kids learn on the street is that admitting you are homeless makes you an easy target for predators. I thought Nice Guy wanted this stuff for himself and he was either shy of asking or lying to us. Nevertheless, I gave him whatever he needed. He told me that he lived with his aunt in Brooklyn for personal reasons. He didn't give me the details and I didn't push. I thought his eyes were misty when he asked me, "Why do you do this?" I didn't know what to say. I had started getting involved with non-profits in the US initially to find something to do with my long empty days. But you don't want to say that. You want to give a grand answer about how you want to change the world. I blabbered something inconsequential.

Suddenly Nice Guy spotted someone. He called over and handed over everything I had given him. I tried to find out more about Nice Guy. He worked at a Pizza outlet. I asked him if he made enough money. I wanted to make sure he wasn't going to go hungry that night. He told me, "I work 12 hours a day and overtime pays very well. I can even buy stuff for my friends sometimes." He had applied to college and had received an admission offer. He was going to do a bachelors degree and major in finance to get a job that, "will lead to great career." (To put things in context he was most likely planning to work through college to pay for his tuition and living expenses). Nice guy didn't want anything from the world except opportunity and he had no complaints. We shook hands and I wished him well before leaving.

When someone asks me next time, "Why do I do this?" I think I know better. I volunteer because it gives me opportunities to meet people like Nice Guy. It motivates me and makes me feel grateful for what I have. For the sake of Nice Guy I also wish and hope that Finance does lead to a great career, in spite of everything that is going on.

Book Update: SuperFreakonomics (Levitt and Dubner) – The book is an easy breezy read with interesting stories. However some parts are oversimplified such as those about climate change solutions. Often correlation is taken causation. It looks like the interest of the authors was in telling memorable stories from uncommon point of view than real research.

The Wharton India Economic Forum: Healthcare (India versus US)

On Saturday, March 27, 2010 I attended the 14th Wharton India Economic Forum. So I believe the event started in 1996 marking five years of liberalization of Indian economy. There was an impressive list of speakers. You had people from Private Equity, Information and Technology, Social Sector, Healthcare, and Education and Training. There also was panel of woman leaders talking about issues of glass ceiling at workplace.



In the morning, I attended the healthcare panel. I found the Sangita Reddy, (Director, Apollo Hospitals) had the most memorable insights. She pointed out the efficiency of health care services in India by comparing the back office & administrative costs in the two countries; 7 percent in India versus 25 percent in US. I am impressed that India has basically managed to keep the cost of a by-pass surgery stable for 27 years despite the high rate of inflation. She underscored her point by mentioning that Indian doctors were more willing to do a 'Beating Heart Surgery', a very complicated procedure that saves costs and has a greater probability of recovery. Apparently, 97 percent of heart surgeries are beating heart in India versus less than 10 percent in the US. You would think that a country as technologically advanced as the US would have adopted an advanced technique. This underscores the discussions about healthcare that I have with my friends, some of them healthcare professionals. They insist that in India doctors are more efficient and more willing to actually 'treat you'. My take on this has always been that a society with such a high instance of law-suits and 'do no harm' principle causes doctors to cover their backs first with multiple tests, before initiating any treatment. The inefficiency in the system is greater because the payment is made by a third party. Since the money appears to go from the insurance company's pocket, neither doctors nor patients are concerned about efficiency. Remember, your insurance premium is actually a 'sunk cost', money that you have spent anyway.



Bhargav Das Gupta, CEO and MD, ICICI Lombard talked about the new products to finance healthcare in India, especially for really poor people. The low penetration on insurance (less than 5%) is an opportunity for insurers, but the low awareness a huge challenge. Only yesterday I was reading how Indians do not care much about health insurance. There was the perennial subject of drugs patents and generics and branded drugs, and the long winded process to discovery of new drugs. What really stayed on with me was an interesting tit bit about ingenious water filters. Homi Khusrokhan, Advisor to Tata Healthcare explained how the Tata's successfully developed an extremely cheap water filter that removes 99.7% bacteria from water using burnt rice husk and nano silver, without power. On a personal note, I really liked Khusrokhan, the man had a wealth of experience with a really humble Lucknowi demeanor. The composition of the panel was extremely impressive. The organizers had ensured that there were representatives from delivery (Apollo), pharmaceutical (GSK and Excel life sciences) and the payers (Tata Healthcare, ICICI Lombard and GSK Venture), ensuring that all aspects of this complex issue are covered. I hope to write about other panels and speakers in my later posts. In the meantime you can have a look at the complete list of speakers & panel members here

Books Update: I am back to fiction for the time being. Finished 'Memoirs of Geisha' sometime back. Loved the portrayal and discovered few unknown aspects of the traditional Japanese culture

Canadian Impressions: February 2010

Recently, I was in Canada for a few days. It was my first visit ever to the country, and left me desiring for more. Canada may not appear foreign if you are an American, because you don't need a visa to travel there. But I did find Canada to be very different from USA. And, since I am comparing apples to apples - Toronto to New York - I think my impressions are representative. First, the Canadian winters. The average daytime temperatures are about 10 degrees lesser than those in the New York east coast area.

I landed there pretty early in the morning on a Sunday, 7 am, hoping to make the most of day (and also for some reasons beyond my control). We later walked the streets of Downtown Toronto scouting for breakfast. We moved from shop to shop looking at the operating hours. None of them would open before 10 am. By 9:30 am some Starbucks opened up. Though I was grateful, if you have been up since 3 o'clock in the morning, you want food by 9 am, not just a coffee with a snack. Lesson number one - Canadians are in no hurry to open their shops on a Sunday. Be prepared to wait till 10:30 am if you want a proper sit down breakfast. There weren't too many (rather any, when we started) people at the Younge Street - believed to longest in the world - even in the downtown area. Finally by midday few people started venturing out.

In a few hours you understand the reasons for the Canadian way of life. It was freezing. Further movement was subject to a hat and a pair of warm gloves. We finally gave up and had a juice and a pretty average Thai soup. The only thing great out the soup was the potion. I closed my day with a very early dinner. The biggest reason, almost all dining places closed by 6 pm. I returned back to the hotel by 6 pm to sleep for a good 14 hours. What better lesson in hibernation can you ever get.

Armed with the lessons of day 1, we begin day 2 in a relaxed Canadian way. Monday is the first day of the week and I noticed is the laid back and balanced Canadian life versus New York. The operating hours of a bank branch that I visited- 9:30 am to 4:30 in the evening. Compare it to 6:00 pm for a similar institution in New York. Or Indian public sector institutions, which work from 9:30 am to 5:30 pm. ICICI Bank, a private bank I was closely associated with as a part of my job in India, has its branches open from 8:30 am to 7 pm. Indian public sector banks which used to have their customer service hours from 9:30 am to 2:00 pm, have extended them as computerization has reduced the amount of manual work involved. However, the merit of timings become apparent after 5 pm when the winds become really chilly. You feel a strong desire to not go out unless you really have to. But a lot of eating and drinking places are open late on weekdays. I mean late by Canadian definition – 11 pm. We adapted to style of Canadian commerce and skipped our breakfast for an early lunch instead.

The rest of our stay passed nicely. Though we saw all around the Downtown, the Financial and the Theater districts, I decided against venturing too far out. I also tried this great place that serves vegetarian cuisine from around the world. We also met an old friend Karan, who is now settled in Toronto. Few other takeaways from the visit, Toronto isn't full of Indians as a lot of us think. I spotted fewer Indians than I usually do walking in Jersey and New York. Karan insists that it is the most cosmopolitan city in the world though I disagree. I believe the place has far fewer people of Asian – Chinese, Korean, and Japanese – origin too. The population is largely Caucasian White. I didn't visit the Greek, Chinese or Indian settlements around the city. But it does have food from all over the world, lots of Thai places, tea houses, Chinese restaurants, Sushi places and Pizza outlets. The public transport if good with Subway in the north to south and streets cars (buses or trams if you prefer) that run on rails in the east west direction.

Colder Toronto weather; higher transient population or the tougher corporate life in New York could all be possible explanations. But all of them lead to the conclusion that Toronto is more focused on family and having a relaxed balanced life as compared to New York. (Btw, Toronto is a more expensive city than New York.)

Globalization & FDI: The winds of change

I have been interested in the phenomenon of Foreign Direct Investment for a while. Till a few years ago, FDI implied the flow of foreign funds into a developing country. The direction was almost taken to be granted and the thoughts of India investing in Europe or Americas didn't cross my kind. Money flowing into the economy was an important indicator of the country's standing and opinion in foreign markets. An important proxy indicator of the possibilities, untainted by government statements. The last ten years of growth have however bought us to a new ground; winds of FDI now clearly blow in both directions.

There is this interesting editorial in Financial Times that shows how the growth in emerging markets has affected the flow of FDI. The article points out that FDI arising out of BRIC nations, Indonesia and South Africa has risen from a mere $10bn in 2003 to $12bn in 2008. A growth of 1100% percent. I remember a headline from the WSJ marketplace front page section about a Chinese company (Sichuan Tenzhong) bidding for the GM Hummer division. The reporter had used the word 'Unknown' literally in the headline. I searched the first four columns and didn't find the name of the company mentioned anywhere.

Coming back to the FT article, it uses four recent examples from the automobile sector involving mergers and purchases by Chinese and Indian companies. Next important learning most of these FDI transactions are M&A transactions and not Greenfield projects. A comparatively easier route with ready access to talent and technology and also a much faster path to growth giving these companies an immediate foothold. To me it is also an indication of the speed of the changes to come.

For the companies in developed markets this therefore is a time of reckoning. Clearly countries like Indian and China are no longer just places to outsource for cheap manufacturing and talent. They are also potential competitors and partners, presenting a need to engage and keep a tab on. The virtues of the 'next billion customers' in growing populations of China and India has already been extolled enough.
I am reminded of the principle of the state of equilibrium. It might be a useful reminder for those in power both in the developing and emerging economies.

You can access the article written by the Matthew Slaughter, associate dean and professor of management at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth here

Book Update: Just finished Dan Brown's The Lost Symbol.

Movie Update: Avatar is in a class of its own. Despite its over the top second half, Three Idiots is thoroughly entertaining. Sherlock Homes is a well shot and acted period drama with an unconvincing Dan Brown style story

Why those who are too big to fail should be charged ? !

There has been ample debate about need for greater regulation of financial firms. Am sure with so many people employed with financial firms and so many other blaming their unemployment on the same firms, there are opinions on both sides. There are two points on which I have a definite thinking. The consumer protection laws and need for such a agency and the second, the subject of this post, that firms who are too big to fail should be asked to comtribute to 150 billion dollar fund.

The second point is a part of the bill being debated in the house to overhaul the regulation of financial sector. I think it makes perfect sense for such a fund and asking firms to contribute to it in relation to their size. The simple logic is this. So far it has been illustrated that too big is actually an insurance against failing. Because by now everyone knows if you are too big and 'interconnected', you will (have to) be bailed out by the government. To big is then actually an insurance in itself, leading to the moral hazard and temptation of, often, indulging in risky business practices. So like any other insurance, it makes sense that a premium be charged for it.

Update [ Jan 6, 2009] - On, a slightly different note, I think its important that I put down the name of the bill. The bill is called, "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act." No campaign speech that, a really name for a law. Yes, there is a lot in a name. My apologies to Shakespeare. But then he hadn't met the politicians of today

The huge difference in work-cultures

Yesterday, I was at the office of a non-profit I am involved with here in New York. I noticed something that made me think and compare the working styles and, the so called open door policies.


It so happened that a gentleman whom I recognize by face as the Executive Director, the senior-most person in the organization, walked over to a door in the hallway. Standing outside the room he asked, " Would you like to talk to me about that video shoot/press release (or something similar) right now." The lady inside the room mentioned that she was working on another project/assignment at that time. He responded with the equivalent of - Fine, we will do it at a later then. He later strolled over to my work-space, said hello, and inquired if he could ask a question. I must mention that we have never met formally, till today.


I tried my best to recall anything remotely similar to that in my five years of experience in India but couldn't. I have worked in highly unstructured software setups and fast growing private sector insurers and have had some really great bosses. But the notion of hierarchy, and your boss having the final say on your time is embedded in our work culture. I don't think any Indian could have ever responded in the way the lady or the gentleman did. Our culture where age and position imply authority, is partly to blame. The expectation of deference to your superiors' wishes built into Indian nature, is further strengthened by the fierce competition due to India's huge population. As a result most of us fast realize, consciously or sub-consciously, that "Yes Sir" is the safest and often the fastest, route to career growth.


It is pertinent to mention that the non-profit actually serves Asian clients, including South Asians. The question is, if we can do it here, why not back home?

Credit Bubble in a Slum ?

Far away from the credit boom of USA from 2004 - 2007, both in distance and in time.

A front page article in the Wall Street Journal states that the micro-finance push maybe creating a credit bubble in India. What started as a social initiative, caught the eyes of investors due to higher returns. Micro-finance loans have interest loans to the tune of 24% - 39% and are generally given to women (more than 90%) who are supposed to be better repayers. Apparently the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) does not regulate interest rates in this market except for advising organizations not to charge too high rates.

Today the number of lenders offering micro-finance has jumped almost 400% from 50 in 2004 to more than 200 in 2008. NBFC (Non Banking Financial Companies) have entered the fray. The loaned amount has grown from less than 0.5 million to 2.4 million. As a result, atleast in some towns and villages there are too many lenders are chasing few good borrowers and - funds loaned for starting business are being used to buy TVs or spent on marriages. Apparently in some over-crowded markets - lending practices are lax; it is often difficult for lenders to cross-check with each other or to verify the utlisation of funds. I just hope the stories of Ramanagram are not being repreated across the country.

This is not to the say that the credit needs to Rural India are being met. Rural Indian economy has very few sources of funds and an even lesser understanding of financial products. I know this by virtue spending an year scaling my organization's distribution beyond metros. It will be really unfortunate if poor lending practices deprive the region and the people their chance for development.

The article published on August 13, 2009 written by Ketaki Gokhale is titled - A Global Surge in Tiny Loans Spurs Credit Bubble in a Slum. You can read it at the WSJ website, but a subscription is needed

New India Film Festival and Interview with Nandita Das (MoMA)

I had my fill of Indian Cinema at the New India film festival at Museum of Modern Art. Five movies (so far) with three of them introduced by actors/directors. The souvenirs include autographs of Nasserudin Shah and Nandita Das.

Nandita Das, an actress I greatly admire was here to talk about her debut as a director in Firaaq (Search/ Quest) which showcases the aftermath of riots in Gujarat. Here is the text of my interview with Nadita Das published at desiclub.com

Movie Update: Firaaq (Nandita Das), A Wednesday (Nasserudin Shah), Oye Lucky Lucky Oye (Abhay Deol), The Voyuers (Bengali, Buddadeb Dasgupta) and Quickgun Murugun (Tamil/Telugu).

The Talibanization of Pakistan - II

The concluding part of the the my article at desiclub.com explores the consequences of a talibanised state and the future of the country. Read it here

Lessons from Jim Rogers' life - a gift to us & US

Take a guess as to which country is being mentioned in the following paragraph.

The country X enjoyed a huge bubble in the _____. When it burst in _____, prices collapsed, sending the economy tumbling. Regrettably, the government and the 'central bank of the country X' kept trying to halt the natural, cleansing effects of this recession by propping up many of the companies in trouble. Just as a forest fire serves to clear out deadwood and underbrush so that the forest can renew itself, recessions help to ensure healthy future growth. In 'the country X' , the business that should have been liquidated became "zombie companies" surviving, albeit barely, on government's artificial support. Everything was Band-Aided with quick fixes. While this delayed a decline, it also postponed the country's recovery. A country can actually spend more money trying to stave of a recession than the recession might cost.

You probably think that I am talking about USA. However this is a passage describing 'the lost decade' of Japan by Jim Rogers. Though Jim mentions in passing that America followed the same route in 1970's, he might as well be presaging what may be coming ahead, considering the way the American debt & fiscal deficit has ballooned. To use a cliche, "History repeats itself." As Jim mentions, a country can spend more money trying to avoid a recession than the recession might itself cost. Sounds even more familiar. After all, only last week the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke pointed out that US needs to control is spending & deficits. Of course he did not talk about the fact the balance sheet of the fed itself has been increasing in size as it has been buying just about anything - mortgage backed securities, corporate debt and the T-Bills issued every few days by the US government.

But, lets come back to Jim Rogers, the guy who made enough money to retire at the age of 37. The book in question, " A Gift to My Children - A Father's Lesson for Life and Investing," is packed with knowledge and wisdom. In his own words,
the book is different from his earlier books in the sense that its about the larger lessons distilled from his experiences. Lessons about thinking for yourself, using common sense, learning history, philosophy and languages and making the world a part of your perspective. Lessons, which we all could use. In less than 100 pages Jim packs lessons that can use at all stages of your life and earlier you learn these lessons, the more you can get from them.

As a aside note, according to Jim, 21st century belongs to China. He does not like India and Russia as investment options. So much so that he has moved to Hongkong & is making sure that his two daughters know Mandarin.

Both Democracies - Yet Poles Apart

Last year I spent a lot of time following the US Presidential election. The Indian elections this year have made me compare notes: How do elections in the world's largest democracy compare with elections in world's largest economy.?

For a start, I was really intrigued by the involvement of the ordinary American into the political process and the fact the campaign was fought on real issues. Yes, there were diversions about Bill Ayers and the religion of present President of the US but the majority of the campaign was on matters that affected the life of an ordinary American - healthcare, economy, pro-choice or pro-life (can't understand why this should be a election issue), Iraq , Afganistan and such. Turn the globe about 180 degrees to India and you fail to spot a single national issue in this election. A string of regional parties splitting, resplitting, aligning to the point where your head spins with confusion.

The two men contesting the king's chair aka Presidency of the World's largest economy, even at their most bitter, treated each other with respect. Incontrast, the two old men at the helm of two of India's largest parties have hurled insults and abuses at each other. And once you move a little lower in the ranks of the parties you are shocked at hatred and virulous remarks that you hear.


Last but probably the most important, because it explains some of the above, is the apathy of the middle class Indian towards the elections. Infact a majority of Indians think what they can achieve in their lives is despite the government rather than because of it. They can not relate to the politicians who them. On top of that is the age and generation gap. 40% of India's billion plus population is young but unfortunately young political parties have old and middle age people at the helm of affairs and in their 2nd line of command. Manmohan Singh & L K Advani and both more than 70 years old.
This article from the New York Times offers a perspective (requires a free signup)

Movie Update : The Fast and the Furious - IV . Some really great action sequences and car chases. Keeps you at the edge of that seat
State of the Play : Average to Interesting.

Working in a foreign land

In reference to my last post on February 15, the business week article by Vivek Wadhwa,(Senior Research Associate at the Labor and Worklife Program at Harvard Law School), is a good read for facts & figures about legal foreign workers on H1-B & other visas in America

Wadhwa quotes research to point that H1 B's have aided innovation and made a significant contribution to patents. But what struck me was the fact that how even the legal migrant workers, even in the so called high skilled category are shortchanged - be it money, quality of work, benefits or promotions. With so many people still keen on coming and continuing to work here, I wonder if tougher immigration laws thus have the reverse effect then i.e, once people get in, they try to stay longer because its difficult to get in. Nevertheless, I am still amazed at people who consider themselves smart and intelligent taking professional discrimination just to stay here. I guess a lot of factors contribute, including personal. A female friend who is married to a migrant gave up a hugely successful career in India to come here. She joined the US operations of her company later, only to find second grade treatment along with the decrease in her responsibilities and stature. She now says that she has given up on career advancement.

Read the article, not just the body but also the comments to get perspective on immigration from both sides

Making the case for being an open economy

While it may seem counter-intuitive at first, the most profitable imports for any economy are the skills and talents that it gets from other countries. USA has raced ahead as imported talent from all over the world innovated to take the country on the road to development. I remember brain-drain to the developed west and ways to stop it used to a common debate topic in school and college in India



Thomas Friedman makes the case for staying away from the protectionist urges in NY times editorial that quotes two Indians.

“All you need to do is grant visas to two million Indians, Chinese and Koreans,” said Shekhar Gupta, editor of The Indian Express newspaper. “We will buy up all the subprime homes. We will work 18 hours a day to pay for them. We will immediately improve your savings rate — no Indian bank today has more than 2 percent nonperforming loans because not paying your mortgage is considered shameful here. And we will start new companies to create our own jobs and jobs for more Americans.”

“If you do this, it will be one of the best things for India and one of the worst for Americans, [because] Indians will be forced to innovate at home,” said Subhash B. Dhar, a member of the executive council that runs Infosys.. , the well-known Indian technology company that sends Indian workers to the U.S. to support a wide range of firms

Link to the Thomas Friedman's article.

The 'threat of protectionism is being recognised across the world with the UK prime minister Gordon Brown advising against it in the Wold Economic Forum at Davos this year & the director general of WTO Pascal Lamay calling for free flow of trade information in this hour of crisis

Link

Unfortunately its difficult not to be populist when your people are hurting and its often difficult to explain how being open to trade, immigration and employment could be the best policy.

Update : Had just finished this post when I saw a new update from marketwatch that the G-7 nations have made a pledge to avoid protectionism amid turmoil. Link

2009: Clouds of a long recession ?

Central Park, New York on a cloudy winter afternoon. The dull sky bespeaks of the upcoming gloom, only silver lining being a slight hint of color.

Its just that I have not been able to capture the color yet in the news around me, not as yet. In fact things seem to be becoming gloomier in real life. Brace for a dark night.