Wednesday, October 15, 2008

End of Capitalism as we know it ?


Ben Bernake addressing the 'The Economic Club' in New York. His statements indicate a shift of long term US policy as we have known it  

a.  Monetary policy has its limits in addresses crises like these and innovative solutions are needed

b.  We need to create systematic authorities to address large non-bank firms that pose systematic risk

c.   We did not have a mechanism;  no body, no authority, no markets for all those securities

d.   There is a problem that these assets do not trade, there is no liquidity and no independent  price discovery. 

If all this retrospection were to be translated into policy talk, he means that policies which let financial firms have there own models to evaluate assets values & risks need to be re-evaluated. The assets should be traded in exchanges & have market determined values. This part of it, to have  a clearing house and an exchange for these assets, is a much agreed view by now.
 
Statement a evaluates a current situation and, statement c clearly indicates part of the helplessness of the US policy as it was, to prevent this situation and provide a way forward. Probably indication of new separate regulatory bodies for non-banks (unlike a situation earlier where Investment Banking firms had no regulatory authorization)

Now add up c , d & the latest actions of US treasury
1. To take a stake in banks
2. To put conditions like 
           a.  No more golden parachutes .,
            b.  Limits on executive compensation (top 5)
            c.  Limits on risk 
            d.  And, government to have voting rights on matters that affect the investment.  

All this together symbolises a distinct shift in from the free for all market to a more centralised one. The reluctance of the US government, adequately pointed out time & again in various statements underscores the point even more. Total communism as was practised by the erstwhile Soviet Union died long time ago and now is the time of reckoning for complete capitalism and free markets. 

This is the system that they have moved to back home in India,  there are markets and there are regulatory bodies - some government owned and quite a few self regulatory ones like AMFI. We decided to move away from the socialist view of Nehrus after about four decades of being independent, leading to about a decade and half of higher growth but we have still maintained a hold on things. The risk taken are far lower. The banks have a minimum capital ratio of 9% stipulated by RBI unlike the US banks where the minimum is only 4% and a bank is supposed to be well capitalised at above 6%. And none of this applied to Investment Banks, a institution category that no longer exists in the US financial system.  This is also the thought shared by some of those European & Asian economies for who moved from extremes on either side to the centralised point of view. 

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